WASHINGTON — A rising number of radicalized young Muslims with Western passports are traveling to Syria to fight with the rebels against the government of Bashar al-Assad, raising fears among American and European intelligence officials of a new terrorist threat when the fighters return home.
More Westerners are now fighting in Syria than fought in conflicts in
Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia or Yemen, according to the officials. They go
to Syria motivated by the desire to help the people suffering there by
overthrowing Mr. Assad. But there is growing concern that they will come
back with a burst of jihadist zeal, some semblance of military
discipline, enhanced weapons and explosives skills, and, in the worst
case, orders from affiliates of Al Qaeda to carry out terrorist strikes.
“Syria has become really the predominant jihadist battlefield in the
world,” Matthew G. Olsen, the director of the National Counterterrorism
Center, told a security conference in Aspen, Colo.,
this month. He added, “The concern going forward from a threat
perspective is there are individuals traveling to Syria, becoming
further radicalized, becoming trained and then returning as part of
really a global jihadist movement to Western Europe and, potentially, to
the United States.”
Classified estimates from Western intelligence services and unclassified
assessments from government and independent experts put the number of
fighters from Europe, North America and Australia who have entered Syria
since 2011 at more than 600. That represents about 10 percent of the
roughly 6,000 foreign fighters who have poured into Syria by way of the
Middle East and North Africa.
Most of the Westerners are self-radicalized and are traveling on their
own initiative to Turkey, where rebel facilitators often link them up
with specific groups, terrorism experts say. Many have joined ranks with
the Qaeda-aligned Nusra Front, which American officials have designated
as a terrorist group.
“The scale of this is completely different from what we’ve experienced
in the past,” Gilles de Kerchove, the European Union’s counterterrorism
coordinator, said at the conference in Aspen.
So far, terrorism experts say, there have been no documented terrorist
plots linked to European or other Western fighters returning from Syria,
but France’s interior minister, Manuel Valls, recently called the
threat “a ticking time bomb.” Security services across Europe are
stepping up their surveillance efforts and seeking ways to make it more
difficult for people suspected of being jihadists to travel to Syria.
European and other Western intelligence agencies are rushing to work
together to track the individuals seeking to cross the border into Syria
from Turkey, though several American officials expressed frustration
that Turkey is not taking more aggressive steps to stem the flow of
Europeans going to fight in Syria.
Hans-Peter Friedrich, Germany’s interior minister, is pushing for an
European Union-wide registry for all foreigners entering the bloc as one
of the measures that will help better track returning radicals.
While such a registry will take time to create and put in place, the
move reflects the level of concern and the understanding among German
security leaders that an individual country’s efforts will be
ineffective without the assistance of its European partners, given the
open borders across much of the Continent.
The German authorities have so far focused domestic efforts on
preventing people suspected of being radicals from leaving the country.
In the northern state of Schleswig-Holstein, the security authorities
this month identified 12 people thought to be radicals, who they said
had given “concrete indications” that they were planning to leave for
Syria.
Public prosecutors in the Netherlands have said that while the
authorities cannot stop would-be jihadists from leaving the country,
they can combat recruitment, which is against the law and carries a
sentence of up to four years in jail or a fine of more than $100,000.
A precise breakdown of the Western fighters in Syria is difficult to
offer, counterterrorism and intelligence officials said, but their
estimates include about 140 French citizens, 100 Britons, 75 Spaniards,
60 Germans, and as many as a few dozen Canadians and Australians. There
are also fighters from Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Ireland,
Italy, Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands, according to a study
in April by the International Center for the Study of Radicalization, a
partnership of academic institutions based in London, which estimated
that 140 to 600 Europeans have gone to Syria.
Only about a dozen Americans have so far gone to fight in Syria, according to American intelligence officials. Nicole Lynn Mansfield, 33, of Flint, Mich., a convert to Islam, was killed in May while in the company of Syrian rebels in Idlib Province.
Eric Harroun,
30, a former Army soldier from Phoenix, was indicted in Virginia by a
federal grand jury last month on two charges related to allegations that
he fought alongside the Nusra Front. In February, he bragged
about his involvement, posting a photo on his Facebook page saying,
“Downed a Syrian Helicopter then Looted all Intel and Weapons!”
About 30 French citizens have returned from the front lines in Syria,
according to Mathieu Guidère, a professor at Université Toulouse II and
an expert on Islamic terrorism. He said most were stopped by the
domestic intelligence service and held for lengthy questioning under a
law passed last year that allows charges to be brought for having
traveled to terrorist training camps or combat zones where terrorist
groups are involved.
Some returned because they were unable to reach the front or find
fighters to arm them or train them, Mr. Guidère said. Many end up lost
among the refugees on the Turkish and Jordanian borders, and after
waiting around for a while come home. Others are rejected by the Free
Syrian Army, which does not want them, he said. Many who end up staying
join the Nusra Front, which often divides them into groups by
nationality.
Recently, the Dutch authorities arrested a 19-year-old woman suspected
of recruiting young Dutch Muslims to fight with Islamic extremists in
Syria.
In April, the Belgian authorities raided 48 homes across the country and
detained six men implicated in what prosecutors described as a jihadist
recruitment drive for the insurgency in Syria. Some of the men have
since been released, Eric Van Der Sypt, a spokesman for the federal
prosecutor, said by telephone on Friday.
Mr. Van Der Sypt said that the Belgian authorities had recently arrested
another man after he returned to Belgium from Syria, but he declined to
provide more information, citing the continuing investigation. “We’re
still following the phenomenon of people going to Syria from very close
by,” he said, referring to residents of places in Belgium like Antwerp
and Vilvoorde, a community north of Brussels, who had become involved in
a group known as Sharia4Belgium.
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