WASHINGTON (AP) -- Preparations for a highly anticipated strike on Syria could lead to an awkward decision on timing.
Few
doubt that President Barack Obama is preparing for a U.S.-led military
action to retaliate for what the U.S. and its allies say was a deadly
chemical weapons attack perpetrated by the Syrian government. But there
are few good options for when to attack.
Wednesday,
for example, would make for an uncomfortable juxtaposition of themes:
On the steps of the Lincoln Memorial, Obama pays tribute to Martin
Luther King Jr. on the 50th anniversary of the nonviolent leader's "I
Have a Dream" speech.
Thursday is also
problematic. That's when British Prime Minister David Cameron is set to
convene an emergency meeting of Parliament, where lawmakers are expected
to vote on a motion clearing the way for Britain to respond to the
alleged chemical weapons attack.
Days later, on Tuesday, Obama embarks on an overseas trip that will take him away from the White House for most of the week.
Would
Obama really want to be running a military operation from Sweden? Or
from Russia, which vigorously opposes action against Syria?
Compounding
the pressure, some lawmakers and allies are urging Obama to proceed
slowly and seek U.N. Security Council approval, while others are
imploring the president to act quickly and decisively. After all,
Obama's response earlier this year after the U.S. first concluded that
Syrian President Bashar Assad had used chemical weapons was criticized
as too little, too late.
"The longer you wait,
the less meaningful it becomes," said Barry Pavel, a former top
national security official in the George W. Bush and Obama
administrations.
Lawmakers from both political
parties have called on Obama to consult Congress before taking action -
a step the White House says is now underway. Obama also is seeking
buy-in from Western allies such as Britain and France, and from regional
organizations like the 22-member Arab League, which has signaled its
interest in justice for victims of the alleged chemical weapons attacks
and blamed the Syrian regime.
But those consultations, too, limit the haste with which the U.S. can act without going it alone.
Britain
added another wrinkle to the deliberations Wednesday by saying it would
seek a U.N. Security Council resolution authorizing steps to protect
Syrian civilians, although Britain's foreign secretary said the world
has a responsibility to act even if the resolution fails; Russia is all
but certain to veto it.
Meanwhile, U.N.
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged against immediate military action,
saying U.N. inspectors need four more days to complete their work before
evidence can be analyzed and then presented to the Security Council.
Although
Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel says the U.S. military is in position to
strike as soon as Obama gives the order, the administration has yet to
release a promised intelligence report formally linking Assad to the
attack. That report would provide a key rationale and underpinning for
the administration's assertion that a game-changing response was
warranted.
The report could be released as
early as Wednesday, the same day as Obama's speech marking the
anniversary of the 1963 March on Washington.
A
successful vote Thursday in Britain's Parliament would mark the start
of short window that national security experts say could be a less
awkward time for Obama to act. But a senior administration official said
once Obama decides on what action to take, he won't delay the decision
because of outside factors or competing events.
Obama,
on Tuesday, will travel to Stockholm for his first visit as president
to Sweden. The Northern European nation has claimed a position of
neutrality in international conflicts for about 200 years.
Two
days later, he heads to St. Petersburg, Russia, for the Group of 20
economic summit with leading foreign counterparts. A major conference
intended to focus on wonky issues like tax evasion and monetary policy
could easily be subsumed by a military incursion in a Mideast hot spot
embroiling the U.S. and potentially other G-20 nations.
What's
more, Russia, the host of the summit, is staunchly backing Assad and
would be among the most vocal opponents of a military strike in Syria.
An American-led attack on Assad's forces while world leaders meet in
Russia would be a major embarrassment for the Kremlin, and would deliver
yet another blow to shaky relations between Russia and the U.S.,
already at a low point since the recent U.S. decision to cancel a
bilateral meeting between Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"The
president has to be prepared for a lot of tension and a high degree of
awkwardness," said Nikolas Gvosdev, a national security professor at the
U.S. Naval War College.
Despite the messy
optics, Obama's foreign travel next week will not be a factor in his
decision about when to act, said the administration official, who wasn't
authorized to discuss internal deliberations publicly and requested
anonymity. The main factor in when an action starts will be how long it
takes to get it off the ground once Obama makes the call. An increase in
foreign assistance, for example, would take a while to ramp up, while a
military action could be ordered right away.
There's
precedent for Obama to take military action while outside the U.S. It
was in Brazil in 2011 when Obama, on a five-day Latin America swing,
authorized limited military action against Libya to counter Moammar
Gadhafi's assault on his own people.
U.S.
officials say a response most likely would involve sea-launched cruise
missile attacks on Syrian military targets. Logistical and military
considerations could also play a role in determining when the U.S. and
others take action. Military experts and U.S. officials said strikes
probably would come during the night, a strategy that could help
minimize civilian casualties.
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Follow Josh Lederman on Twitter at http://twitter.com/joshledermanAP
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