(Reuters) - Military support from Iran
and its Shi'ite ally Hezbollah has given Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad new impetus in his fight against the insurgents intent on
ousting him, but at a price.
Assad now risks losing much of
his autonomy to Tehran and becoming a pawn in a wider sectarian war
between Sunni Muslims and Shi'ites that may not end even if he is forced
to step down, military experts and diplomats in the region say.
Having
lost thousands of troops and militiamen from his Alawite sect as the
war grinds through its third year, and anxious to preserve his elite
loyalist units, Assad is now relying on Hezbollah from Lebanon and other
Shi'ite militias allied with
Iran to turn the tide of battle.
Alawite
army units with their vast arsenal of artillery and missiles have been
taking a back seat in combat, using these weapons supported by the air
force to obliterate rebellious neighborhoods and blow holes in rebel
lines for Iranian-and Hezbollah-trained local militias.
In
some cases men from Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed group that is one of
Lebanon's most powerful military and political forces, have been doing
the street fighting, according to rebel commanders and other opposition
sources.
Under this new arrangement, Hezbollah and
Iran
have become directly involved in the command structures of Assad's
forces, eroding his authority and the Alawite power base that has
underpinned four decades of family rule by him and his father.
The Alawites, to which Assad belongs, are an offshoot of Islam that has controlled
Syria since the 1960s.
Unlike the Shi'ites in
Iraq,
Iran and Lebanon, Syria's Alawites tend to be secular and lack the
religious zeal that has helped motivate thousands of Shi'ite militia to
come to
Syria.
Security sources in the region estimate there are about 15,000 Shi'ite fighters from Lebanon and
Iraq in
Syria, and they have helped produce success on the battlefield, reversing gains made by rebels in two years of fighting.
When
rebel fighters have held confined areas, such as the border town of
Qusair, which was overrun by Hezbollah and Assad loyalists two months
ago, they have put themselves at a serious disadvantage, the sources
said.
Rebellious Sunni districts
in Homs to the south are being hit hard and Damascus suburbs, a main
concentration of the Arab- and Western-backed Free Syrian Army, are
under siege as the war's death toll climbs above 90,000.
But
Assad's newfound military advantage may prove short lived, despite the
increasing pressure on the rebels, military experts and diplomats
believe.
The fall of Qusair, and Hezbollah's triumphant rhetoric, spurred regional heavyweight
Saudi Arabia
into action. The kingdom, diplomats say, has assumed the main role in
backing the opposition in coordination with the United States.
TRAINED MILITIAS
Signs
of renewed support for the opposition are showing in the northern city
of Aleppo, where a government counterattack backed by Hezbollah, which
trained Shi'ite militia in the area, has stalled, according to the
opposition.
Even if Assad can
capture Homs, hold Damascus and overrun neighborhoods that had fallen to
rebels, such as Jobar, Barzeh and Qaboun, he would preside over a much
reduced country.
Kurdish fighters
are consolidating their hold on a de facto autonomous region in the
grain- and oil-producing northeastern province of Hasakah that came to
being after Assad's forces withdrew to concentrate on defending areas in
the interior.
Hardline Islamist
brigades are ruling much of two provinces east of Hasakah and they are
strongly present in Aleppo. Assad is mainly left with Damascus and a
corridor running through Homs to his Alawite heartland and army bases on
the coast and to Hezbollah's strongholds in Lebanon.
Andrew
Terrill, research professor of national security affairs at the U.S.
Army War college, said the rebels will "hang on" because Assad has lost
too much of the country.
"Winning
battles is very different than winning wars because people who are under
assault are going to recoup at some point. The rebels remain armed and
remain able to strike at him," Terrill told Reuters.
"Assad
may be able to win in the sense that he may stay in power and he is not
overthrown directly, but I cannot imagine him pacifying the country
because I just think there are too many rebels and too much resistance,"
he said.
Terrill said new weapons expected from
Saudi Arabia
are bound to redress the balance of power as well as promised U.S.
arms. Salim Idriss, head of the Free Syrian Army's command, is due to
visit the United States this week to press for speedy U.S. arms
shipments.
Iran meanwhile,
continues to supply Assad with military assistance and financing
estimated at $500 million a month, according to opposition sources.
"The
Iranians and Hezbollah go in and train people and if they can whip
these militias into shape then Assad could increasingly rely on them and
spare his crack troops," Terrill said.
Hezbollah has openly acknowledged its involvement in Syria, but Assad and Iran have not commented.
PRAETORIAN GUARD
Faced
with losing large areas of Syria to mainly Sunni rebel fighters, Assad
has adjusted tactics in the last few months to preserve his mostly
Alawite Praetorian guard units -- the Republican Guards, the Fourth
Division and the Special Forces -- and started relying on Hezbollah,
especially to capture the central region of Homs, the sources said
Mohammad
Mroueh, a member of the Syrian National Council, said Hezbollah and
Iran have been training the militias Assad is using for street fighting
in Homs and have established, together with Iranian officials,
operations rooms in the city.
"When
there is an area where the army and the militia encounter stiff
resistance, they're calling Hezbollah to do the fighting," said Mroueh.
Abu
Imad Abdallah, a rebel commander in southern Damascus, said Hezbollah
fighters and Iraqi Shi'ite militia were key to capturing two areas on
the south-eastern approaches to the capital -- Bahdaliyeh and Hay al
Shamalneh -- in recent weeks.
"They
went in after saturation bombing by the regime. They are disciplined
and well trained and are fighting as religious zealots believing in a
cause. If it was the army we would not be worried," he said.
But
veteran opposition activist Fawaz Tello said that using Hezbollah was a
sign of Assad's weakness, pointing to his inability to rely on Sunnis
who form the bulk of the army.
"Remember
that Assad started this conflict with about a million men under arms
between conscripts and the army and the security apparatus. Now more and
more he is relying on foreign troops and without them he will lose,
especially if the rebels begin to receive advanced weapons," Tello said.
Assad
was now becoming an Iranian proxy, Tello said, while Mamoun Abu Nawar, a
Jordanian military analyst, said the Syrian leader was forced to bow to
the will of Tehran.
"He can no
longer call a division head and tell him to bomb the hell out of this
neighborhood or that. His command has been eroded and the command
structure is now multinational," Abu Nawar said.
A
diplomat in the region put it more bluntly: "Whether Assad stays or
goes is becoming irrelevant. The conflict is now bigger than him, and it
will continue without him. Iran is calling the shots."
(Editing by Giles Elgood)